MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0187

ACUS11 KWNS 211528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211527
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL MO...FAR NERN OK...FAR SERN KS...NRN AR

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 211527Z - 211930Z

SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN
MO/NRN AR...WITH A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE...WITH A
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE OF FREEZING RAIN. LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF
GREATER THAN 0.50 INCH IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15-18Z WITH PRECIPITATION
RATES ABOVE 0.10 INCH/HR...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG WAA ADVECTION REGIME ABOVE A COLD SURFACE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS WRN OK AND ARK AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO SRN
MO AND NRN AR. 12Z SGF AND TOP SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE FAVORABLE
FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR WITH A TRANSITION ZONE
INCLUDING BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FARTHER N ACROSS CNTRL MO.
WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH PRECIPITATION RATES GENERALLY ABOVE 0.10 INCH/HR
WITH RATES LOCALLY APPROACHING 0.30 INCH/HR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
MO AND NRN AR.

..MOSIER.. 02/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...

LAT...LON 37779530 38099501 38429408 38409205 38259119 37809040
37289014 36738999 36249029 35939127 35919297 36119415
36399476 37069548 37779530

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