DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011613
SWODY1
SPC AC 011611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST FRI MAR 01 2013

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TEXAS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY IS NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ...CONTRIBUTING
TO LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BENEATH THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ASSOCIATED -30C 500 MB COLD CORE...THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR AND DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS/EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH/NAM/ECMWF ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING...SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD...THAT PROBABLY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL DATA. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BE QUITE MEAGER WITH THIS
LOW-TOPPED...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY... FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO STILL GENERALLY INDICATE CAPE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE RISK FOR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED DURING THE 20-23Z TIME
FRAME...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

..KERR.. 03/01/2013

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