DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111939
SWODY1
SPC AC 111936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
SMALL ADJUSTMENT MADE TO CATEGORICAL TSTM OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND OF RAINFALL IN THE ERN GULF
COAST AREA. A FEW SPORADIC STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF NC/VA OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW THE 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD.

..GRAMS.. 03/11/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT MON MAR 11 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
CONSOLIDATION OF A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS OF MID/UPPER WESTERLIES
EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC IS NOW UNDERWAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND COMES IN PHASE WITH TROUGHING WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED
STREAM EXTENDING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW ALREADY WITHIN THIS STREAM APPEAR LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE ROTATES ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITHIN BROADENING CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

IN RESPONSE TO UPPER DEVELOPMENTS...A SURFACE CYCLONE MAY CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL REMAIN
WEAK. PRIOR TO THIS DEVELOPMENT SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO WARM LAYERS PRESENT ALOFT/ APPEARS
UNLIKELY INLAND OF EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...IN THE WAKE OF
COOL/DRY SURFACE RIDGING. AND THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF STATES...INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY INDICATE TOO LOW OR UNCERTAIN
POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A
CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME...OUTSIDE OF
AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

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