DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201946
SWODY1
SPC AC 201944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

HAVE OPTED TO LOWER SEVERE PROBS FROM MARTIN COUNTY NWD ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FL DUE TO WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THIS REGION. STRONGER INSTABILITY AND A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY LAYER
CU FIELD SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SUGGEST TSTMS MAY ULTIMATELY
EVOLVE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF THICKER CLOUD CANOPY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH
SUPPORTING LOW HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.

..DARROW.. 03/20/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT WED MAR 20 2013/

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF FL.

...FL...
SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS SHOW MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...LIMITING DAYTIME
HEATING AND REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN PENINSULA WHERE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE REDUCED DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LESSEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES DUE TO COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

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