DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271836
SWODY1
SPC AC 271834

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

..SMITH.. 03/27/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013/

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST OFF THE ORE COAST IS
BECOMING ZONALLY ELONGATED AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...WITH TWO
ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW. A LOBE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE ERN-MOST CIRCULATION
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE SHORTLY AND THEN IMPACT PARTS OF
THE NWRN CONUS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO THE AUGMENTATION OF THIS ASCENT BY TERRAIN-DRIVEN
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL OCCUR AMIDST MODEST ENHANCEMENTS TO
LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SUPPORTING 0.4-0.7-INCH PW VALUES PER GPS
DATA. AND...WITH WEAK BUOYANCY EXTENDING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO
ICING LAYERS ALOFT FOR CHARGE SEPARATION PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN/SRN WA AND NRN ORE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

FARTHER E/SE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT BASIN...A FEW AREAS
OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AROUND PEAK HEATING AND
POTENTIALLY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...THESE
AREAS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. AND...WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES IN MANY LOCATIONS...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO
LIMITED FOR ANY GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...GENERALLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER
MOST AREAS IN THE MID LEVELS...WHILE CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES
REINFORCED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A BROAD SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF
COAST STATES...WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES ENHANCES SLY FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN OVER
THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...STABLE AND/OR INSUFFICIENTLY MOIST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

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