ACUS01 KWNS 270432
SWODY1
SPC AC 270429
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LOW-AMPLITUDE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER A LARGE PART OF THE
CONUS IN THE MID LEVELS...WHILE CYCLONIC FLOW IS REINFORCED FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND...AND A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD. A SPRAWLING SFC ANTICYCLONE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENHANCES SLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. DRY AND/OR STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS -- WITH AN EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WRN STATES.
...PORTIONS OF WRN/SRN WA AND NRN ORE THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING...ACTING TO
BOOST INSTABILITY AND AUGMENT ASCENT DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS.
...E/SE OF THE GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CNTRL GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AROUND PEAK
HEATING...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL BE SPATIALLY REMOVED FROM THE ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. AND...WITH MODEST
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES IN MANY LOCATIONS...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO WARRANT A
GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA.
..COHEN/JEWELL.. 03/27/2013
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment