DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041629
SWODY1
SPC AC 041627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST MON MAR 04 2013

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ARKLAMISS TO LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL DIG SEWD TO KS/NE/IA/MO BY EARLY TUESDAY...AS A
SEPARATE SPEED MAX EJECTS EWD FROM AZ/NM TO TX/OK. AT THE
SURFACE...A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE IN CENTRAL OK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY 05/12Z. A MODIFYING MARINE AIR MASS WILL
RETURN NEWD FROM E TX TO THE MID SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE AND
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THOUGH THE QUALITY OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE HAS BEEN
LIMITED BY A RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF/NW
CARIBBEAN...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-60 F RANGE ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE ARKLAMISS BY TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION CONFINED TO THE ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR 850 MB...ALONG THE NE EDGE OF
THE WARM SECTOR. THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER
STEEP WITH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /ALREADY PRESENT IN REGIONAL
12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS TX...LA...AND AR/...THE MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

...HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A ZONE OF ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD SE CO/NE NM/NW TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK PROGRESSING SEWD FROM ID/UT. THOUGH MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE ASCENT ALONG A
COLD FRONT MOVING SWWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 03/04/2013

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