DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071928
SWODY1
SPC AC 071925

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CST THU MAR 07 2013

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 03/07/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST THU MAR 07 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD JUST OFF THE CENTRAL/SRN CA
COASTS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS
INLAND...WHILE WEAK BUOYANCY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MIDLEVEL
COLD CORE AND ZONE OF ASCENT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE LOW.
THUS...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND TONIGHT ALONG THE
SRN CA COAST. FARTHER E AND NE...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
TOO LIMITED FOR MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
SE AZ IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN CA MIDLEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD /09-12Z/...AND THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD AN AREA IN THIS
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...A RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...IN THE WAKE OF
A DEEP ATLANTIC COAST CYCLONE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. WEAK
LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...AND THIS WILL INDUCE RETURN FLOW OF A MODIFYING
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS INTO S/CENTRAL TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF MODEST MOISTURE AND A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY AND ANY THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS TX. ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS W/NW KS TONIGHT...WHERE MOISTURE
FROM THE TOP OF THIS AFTERNOON/S BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SPREAD NEWD
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
STILL...ANY BUOYANCY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL AND ROOTED AOA THE 600
MB LEVEL...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL BE VERY
MARGINAL AT BEST...GIVEN THE MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES.

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