DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141227
SWODY1
SPC AC 141225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
OVER THE WRN CONUS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS
LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ITS
NRN PERIPHERY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF
MODESTLY ENHANCED DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE SUBTROPICS ACROSS
THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW...NRN GREAT BASIN...AND NRN
ROCKIES. IN THESE AREAS...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE TOO MEAGER/SHALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO WARRANT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION.

FARTHER E...MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE ERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NERN
U.S. COAST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NWLY FLOW REGIME...A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE -- CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IA AND SRN MN PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY -- WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH SCATTERED SEWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THUS...A GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OWING
TO INSUFFICIENT BUOYANCY.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/14/2013

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