DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141927
SWODY1
SPC AC 141924

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. CONTINUE NO THUNDER.

..JEWELL.. 03/14/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES APPEAR LIKELY TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CREST OF AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S...MODELS INDICATE THAT FLOW WILL REMAIN ANTICYCLONIC IN A BROAD
ARC FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE U.S. PLAINS/ MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...BEFORE IT TURNS CYCLONIC ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO REMAINING UNLIKELY BENEATH THIS REGIME...SEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A PLUME EXTENDING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COAST INTO THE
PUGET SOUND AREA...COUPLED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING...MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING CONVECTION WITHIN A BROADER PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ACROSS THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
CASCADES BY 15/00-03Z. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EVIDENT IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IS LOW.

MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DID BRIEFLY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SHORT-LIVED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA EARLIER THIS MORNING.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION AS FORCING
DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/ LOWER OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
10 PERCENT.

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