DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230045
SWODY1
SPC AC 230043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT FRI MAR 22 2013

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NRN LA TO W-CNTRL
MS THIS EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU IN TX EARLY SAT...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
TSTM INITIATION HAS YET TO OCCUR INVOF A DECAYING SURFACE LOW NEAR
LFK AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN LA. THIS
BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SUNK SWD IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING GIVEN MODEST
YET PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS SHOULD BE LOW WITH PREDOMINATELY ELEVATED
PARCELS ATOP A COOL/STABLE SURFACE. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
MUCAPE TO 2500 J/KG AS SAMPLED BY 00Z SHV RAOB WILL SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL.

...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY OF TX...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN CNTRL TX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN
THE NEAR-TERM. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SELYS WILL INCREASE LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CO ROCKIES. THIS WILL YIELD RAPID
MOISTENING FROM S TX AND RESULT IN MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY GIVEN
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY SAT...OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 09-12Z. THIS SETUP MAY YIELD AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL OR TWO
WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE STORMS WILL FORM ALONG WITH TIMING
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
HAIL PROBABILITIES.

..GRAMS.. 03/23/2013

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