DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111656
SWODY2
SPC AC 111655

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON MAR 11 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL DAMPEN BY
12Z/TUE...WITH AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE REACHING THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTS BY TUE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK INTO
SERN VA BY LATE MORNING TUE...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING EWD TO THE S ATLANTIC COAST AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.

...ERN NC AREA...
A SWATH OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT/DAMPENING
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THIS SHOULD RETARD DIURNAL-BASED DESTABILIZATION
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MOIST-ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
YIELDING ONLY MINIMAL BUOYANCY. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT SLIGHT
MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE
FLARE-UPS WHICH COULD YIELD A FEW EMBEDDED/SPORADIC TSTMS. PROSPECTS
FOR APPRECIABLE SURFACE HEATING MAY BE RELEGATED TO IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. BUT DIMINISHING/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
PROFILES SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE AS WELL.

...E-CNTRL FL...
DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING MAY
OCCUR FOR ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

..GRAMS.. 03/11/2013

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