DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161717
SWODY2
SPC AC 161716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS WITH A BROAD BELT OF NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST BEHIND AN EJECTING NEW ENGLAND TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL AR EWD
ACROSS TN AND INTO NC...WITH A DECAYING COLD FRONT FROM AR SWWD INTO
CNTRL TX. SLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP MAINTAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S F FROM E TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST.

THETA-E ADVECTION NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
ZONE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MO EWD TO THE DELMARVA DURING
THE DAY...WITH A SECONDARY INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS AR DURING THE
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.

OVERNIGHT...COOLING ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SPORADIC
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER KS...OK...AND NRN TX. INSTABILITY WILL
BE VERY WEAK AND ROOTED NEAR 700 MB.

...AR...
HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS E
TX...SRN AR AND NRN LA WITH MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK...AND DESPITE HEATING...A WARM
LAYER WILL EXIST AROUND 700 MB...INHIBITING CONVECTION S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO
30-40 KT...WITH SOME GRADUAL COOLING IN THE CAPPING LAYER AS UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS PERSIST. THE BEST CONDITIONAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE AROUND 00-03Z ACROSS CNTRL AR WHERE
LIFT NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE STRONGEST COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE PLUME. COOL PROFILES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY FAVOR SOME ELEVATED HAIL N OF THE FRONT...BUT
THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..JEWELL.. 03/16/2013

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