DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041729
SWODY2
SPC AC 041728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST MON MAR 04 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL UNDERGO GREATER AMPLIFICATION
- ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 2 - AS IT MOVES FROM THE
MID MO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OFF THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. A
SURFACE LOW...LOCATED OVER WRN KY/LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY TUE
MORNING...WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
LATE TUE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
ESEWD WITH THE APPROACHING AMPLIFYING TROUGH. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SSWWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH NRN LA TO THE TX GULF COAST
AT 12Z TUE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE QUICKLY EWD. BY 06/00Z...THIS
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN GA THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN MOVE OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST
TRAILING SWWD THROUGH NRN FL LATE TUE NIGHT.

...PARTS OF SRN/CENTRAL GA AND WRN/CENTRAL SC...
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MID MO VALLEY
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD...VEERED LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT THE RETURN OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. A LITTLE
GREATER SURFACE DEWPOINTS /UP TO MID 50S F/ ARE NOW EXPECTED THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DEEP WLY WINDS ADVECTING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THIS REGION TUE AFTERNOON WILL CAP THE RATHER MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN...AND TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST TSTM
DEVELOPMENT/GREATER STORM COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE
THESE THERMODYNAMIC CONCERNS...MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST W OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS...STRENGTHENING FURTHER THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD...POSE A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE FRONT/CONVECTION ADVANCE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL GA INTO WRN/CENTRAL SC TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..PETERS.. 03/04/2013

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