DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071714
SWODY2
SPC AC 071712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST THU MAR 07 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN ON INCREASING S/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD FROM LEE CYCLONE OVER SE CO INTO SW TX. DEWPOINTS NEAR
50 F TO THE MID 50S F ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM
THE ERN TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WRN OK AND CENTRAL KS. AS APPROACHING
SPEED MAX OVER NM OVERSPREADS THE REGION...SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE AND VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR
THE DRYLINE BY 00Z AS EML ERODES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RESULT
IN MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS COMPOSITE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SURGES EWD
OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED/BROKEN
LINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN INTO CENTRAL KS AND WRN OK. THESE STORMS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 03/07/2013

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