DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270712
SWODY3
SPC AC 270710

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE U.S. IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE WRN RIDGE
WITH TIME AND THE ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW MAKING EWD PROGRESS TOWARD
THE W COAST. OTHERWISE HOWEVER...NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST E OF THE ROCKIES...WITH CONTINUED -- ALBEIT WEAKENING --
RIDGING OVER THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN PERSIST E OF THE MS
VALLEY...WHILE HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE -- RESULTING IN
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LEE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A BROADER
AREA OF THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.


...THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS...
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE OK VICINITY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE THREAT AREA -- PARTICULARLY FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD -- AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO LEE
TROUGHING. WHILE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MODEST -- PRECLUDING ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE
THREAT.

AFTER DARK...INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD FACILITATE MORE WIDESPREAD/ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT WITH TIME FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS NEB/KS/OK/N TX...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY LIKELY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. WHILE SMALL HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS INVOF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...ANY SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK
AREA ATTM.

..GOSS.. 03/27/2013

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