ACUS03 KWNS 310721
SWODY3
SPC AC 310719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TX...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER TX DURING THE
DAY...EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE NAM SOLUTION
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER S INTO CNTRL TX WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
IT OVER NRN TX.
REGARDLESS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
ELEVATED TO THE N AS SLY FLOW MAINTAINS MOISTURE FLUX. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CO/NM WILL ALSO INCREASE LIFT AS IT EMERGES
OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. AS A
RESULT...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW. WHILE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND COULD OCCUR...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW
FOR ANY AREAS.
..JEWELL.. 03/31/2013
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