DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140853
SWOD48
SPC AC 140853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. FROM SUNDAY/DAY 4 INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE MODELS GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO AMPLIFY ON MONDAY/DAY 5 MOVING EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND GULF COAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT.
A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM TN SWWD ACROSS MS AND AL WHERE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD BE IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY/DAY
6...THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD
WITH CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY
7...THE MODELS RE-ESTABLISH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR MONDAY ABOUT THE
QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AND TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THIS POINT...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SEVERE
THREAT AREA.

..BROYLES.. 03/14/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.