DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270901
SWOD48
SPC AC 270900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DAYS 4-5 /SAT. 3-30 TO SUN. 3-31/. AS THIS
OCCURS...PRONOUNCED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH DAY 5 -- AND THEN ON SWD INTO
THE SRN U.S. DAY 6.

MEANWHILE...AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE WRN U.S. ENCROACHES UPON
THE EXPANDING ERN U.S. CYCLONIC FLOW...THE FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO HAVE
MOVED INTO S TX AND THE GULF COAST REGION BY DAY 7 -- I.E. WHEN THE
WRN SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE PLAINS -- ANY
RESULTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SUPPRESSED
TO FAR S TX. APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD
THUS LIKELY BE DELAYED BEYOND DAY 7 /OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ -- AND
MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASING THROUGH DAY 8 MAKES SUCH POTENTIAL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SUCH THAT NO OUTLOOK AREAS WILL BE ISSUED THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 03/27/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.