DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310833
SWOD48
SPC AC 310832

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
FROM WED/D4 TO THU/D5...A LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...THEN WILL PHASE
WITH THE LARGER SCALE NERN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE E COAST ON
FRI/D6. INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS FL DUE TO SWLY FLOW OFF THE GULF...AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A LINE OF STORMS
TO FORM OVER THE ERN GULF AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH
PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND/MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT. THIS COULD HAPPEN
THU OR FRI...DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES. IF MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN LATER OUTLOOKS...A SEVERE RISK AREA COULD
BE ADDED FOR FL.

FOR D7-D8...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BUT MODELS DO SHOW A
POSSIBLE WRN TROUGH DEVELOPING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO EPISODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE D9-D10 TIME FRAME.

..JEWELL.. 03/31/2013

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