MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0242

ACUS11 KWNS 032222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032221
MTZ000-032245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0421 PM CST SUN MAR 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF SERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032221Z - 032245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STORM WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL TRACK ESEWD
DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS MEASURED AT BILLINGS ASOS IS INCREASING IN
INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES FROM YELLOWSTONE INTO BIG HORN COUNTY. RADAR
DATA DEPICT A WELL DEFINED REAR INFLOW NOTCH...HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. DOWNSTREAM...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AS THE
STORM TRACKS ACROSS NRN BIG HORN PERHAPS INTO SRN ROSEBUD COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. STRONG DEEP SHEAR PER BILLINGS VWP
AND FRONTAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OFFSET NEAR-ZERO BUOYANCY.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...

LAT...LON 45440678 45450751 45580817 45860803 45920776 45910721
45770647 45490622 45440678

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