MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0251

ACUS11 KWNS 081924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081923
AZZ000-082100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081923Z - 082100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE SRN HALF OF
AZ...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS
SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST. A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...AT 19Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING
SRN AZ. SURFACE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS CHARACTERIZED
BY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND
40S. SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH
INCREASING ASCENT IS AIDING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
HEATING/MOISTENING AT THE SURFACE IS AIDING IN MUCAPE VALUES NEAR
500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...EXIT REGION OF 40+ KT MIDLEVEL SWLY JET IS
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 50 KT...WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
WINDS.

..GARNER/EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 32201375 32471390 33301367 33781275 33601038 32800935
31740970 31331028 31501162 32201375

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