MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0270

ACUS11 KWNS 161955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161955
VAZ000-WVZ000-162130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL VA...SERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161955Z - 162130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A THIN
BAND OF TSTMS CROSSING THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

DISCUSSION...A THIN PRE-FRONTAL ARC OF TSTMS HAS INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST HOUR IN PARTS OF SERN WV. BUOYANCY IS QUITE LIMITED OWING
TO GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS. BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S ARE SUPPORTING STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...SETUP WILL
FAVOR TRANSIENT UPDRAFT ROTATION/SMALL-SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS THREAT WILL BE SUSTAINED GIVEN
THE MEAGER DOWNSTREAM BUOYANCY E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...A TSTM CLUSTER MAY PERSIST INTO CNTRL VA
UNTIL THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING DIMINISHES THE THREAT.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 03/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

LAT...LON 38277964 38397880 38277813 38067780 37607763 37167815
36747938 36687987 36748084 37038133 37418154 37608134
38277964

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