MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0271

ACUS11 KWNS 171942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171941
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-172115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...EXTREME SERN CO...W-CNTRL TX...TX/OK
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171941Z - 172115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS ERN NM...EXTREME SERN CO...W-CNTRL TX...AND THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...BUT
DEWPOINTS ARE LOW /20S AND 30S/ DUE TO A RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DESPITE THE VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AIDING IN MUCAPE VALUES
LOCALLY UP TO 500 J/KG. THIS BUOYANCY IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL NM AS A PLUME OF ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE OVER WRN NM ADVANCES ACROSS A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. DEEP-LAYER...MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IS
FAVORABLE FOR FAST MOVING HIGH BASED STORMS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
ADVANCE ACROSS W-CNTRL TX AND THE PANHANDLES AS THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH THE DRY
STRONGLY MIXED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 03/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35410032 33980014 32660093 32210259 33320434 35730486
37070413 37280253 35410032

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