MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0276

ACUS11 KWNS 181744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181744
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-181915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NRN AL...NRN MS...FAR ERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51...

VALID 181744Z - 181915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...NRN MS AND NRN AL. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT BUT HAIL AND A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE CENTER OF WW 51 WITH A MOIST AXIS FROM ERN MS NEWD INTO
MIDDLE TN. SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG
THE MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 55 TO 60 F RANGE. SFC
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING AND INSTABILITY IS STILL
WEAK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A 40
TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FROM NERN MS EXTENDING NEWD INTO
MIDDLE TN. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING LIFT AND IS PROVIDING STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. THE LATEST WSR-88D
VWP AT HUNTSVILLE AL SHOWS 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD ENABLE
STORMS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...45 KT OF FLOW
EXISTS AT 1 KM SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
WIND DAMAGE. THE FASTER MOVING LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD HAVE THE
GREATEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL AND A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION.

..BROYLES/HART.. 03/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
JAN...

LAT...LON 36768534 35618687 34988847 34778911 34288992 33779038
33448992 33318711 34038551 35638437 36638403 36768534

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