MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0291

ACUS11 KWNS 222332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222332
TXZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CDT FRI MAR 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222332Z - 230130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE SUNSET. IF A STORM FORMS...HAIL COULD
OCCUR.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS CNTRL TX.
STRONG HEATING HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S F S OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S F.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FURTHER INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION IS HAMPERING VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT.

WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE NOTED RECENTLY OVER KERR COUNTY...WHICH
APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR A STORM. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
CONDITIONALLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...EVEN IF A STORM DOES
FORM...THE THREAT AREA WOULD LIKELY REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED...AND
WATCH WOULD NOT BE ISSUED.

..JEWELL/KERR.. 03/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON 29549833 29609970 29779974 29949963 30059937 30159836
30189795 30039788 29609788 29549833

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