ACUS11 KWNS 230116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230116
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-230315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT FRI MAR 22 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SRN AR...WRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230116Z - 230315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MODEST WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND N OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT OF
HAIL.
DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW ECHOES INCREASING OVER NWRN
LA NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM SHV AND LCH
INDICATED AMPLE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LONG. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE A DISTINCT THREAT THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...AND STORMS ARE RELATIVELY
SLOW GROWING. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD
INTO SRN AR...NWRN MS AND NERN LA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE FORCING MAY EXIST TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE GREATER
INSTABILITY FARTHER S. IF STORMS CAN INCREASE OVER SRN AREAS NEAR
THE WARM FRONT...THEN A WATCH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
..JEWELL/KERR.. 03/23/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33758955 33238916 32508936 31759012 31639073 31669122
31829206 32519340 33189340 34059308 34359221 34249078
33758955
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