MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0331

ACUS11 KWNS 292022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292022
OKZ000-TXZ000-292245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...NWRN TX
AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292022Z - 292245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD SVR TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 2030Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 22Z.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING INTO W TX WILL OVERSPREAD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EAST OF A SHARPENING SFC DRYLINE THROUGH LATE AFTN. BY
22Z...THE DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE SRN
TX PANHANDLE S/SWWD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME INCREASE IN CU FIELD NEAR THE CAPROCK TO THE
SW OF CDS. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
REDUCE CIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR WIDELY SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFT 2030Z.
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 DEG C/KM/ AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ONE OR MORE ESEWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TIME INTO EARLY EVENING WITH PRIMARILY A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 03/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 31850120 31870182 32000202 32650174 33050149 33490144
34450140 34850144 35210126 35430081 35550023 35429951
34719903 33449899 32079999 31840107 31850120

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