MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0334

ACUS11 KWNS 300001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300001
OKZ000-TXZ000-300130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...W/NW TX...ERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN INTO CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64...

VALID 300001Z - 300130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS
WW 64.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SFC-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SINCE 21Z
ACROSS A BROAD REGION OF W TX INTO SWRN/CNTRL OK...AHEAD OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD OUT OF NM.

ONE FOCUSED AREA OF STORMS HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR AND NE OF
LBB...IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN THIS
AREA...WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS SUPPORTING
SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OK...WITH RECENT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY. MODERATE SBCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. THE ONGOING
SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL NEAR EL RENO WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
/POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ ACROSS NRN AND WRN
AREAS OF THE OKC METRO FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN OK AND
ALSO ACROSS THE SERN PART OF WW 64 NEAR AND S OF ABI. MODERATE CAPE
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL WATCH
ISSUANCE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN SLOW EWD PROGRESSION AND EVENTUAL LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...BUT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

ISOLATED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST AREAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 01-02Z AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING COMMENCES.

..DEAN.. 03/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 31710207 32110218 32970220 33810179 34900135 35810088
36310062 36619960 36469865 36269787 36199731 35979691
35549698 35369746 35039780 34499828 34039859 33239897
32439916 31689937 31430012 31420121 31710207

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