MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0335

ACUS11 KWNS 300225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300224
OKZ000-TXZ000-300400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0924 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N-CNTRL TX...SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 300224Z - 300400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NW
TX NEAR THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...NEW WW ISSUANCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AS THE STORM COMPLEX BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF WW 64.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NW TX NEAR THE RED RIVER HAS
SHOWN A RECENT UPTICK IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. AN INCREASING
LOWLEVEL JET /30-35 KTS AT 1 KM IN RECENT FWD VAD DATA/ WILL LIKELY
HELP TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...BUT WITH
INCREASINGLY LINEAR MODE AND ACCELERATING FORWARD SPEED...AN
INCREASE IN SEVERE WIND THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING CAP STRENGTH...WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR MAINTENANCE OF NEAR-SFC BASED STORMS AND SEVERE WIND.

MEANWHILE...A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL IN CLAY COUNTY TX CONTINUES TO BE
A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. IF THIS STORM IS ABLE TO PERSIST...IT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY FASTER-MOVING CLUSTER TO THE WEST. WW 64
HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO JEFFERSON AND LOVE COUNTY OK TO COVER
THE SHORT-TERM RISK FROM THIS STORM.

IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES AND CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...NEW WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03-04Z.

..DEAN/GUYER.. 03/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33199979 33679985 34219984 34489963 34619882 34649785
34579720 34519648 34409598 34149568 33759542 33149539
32949587 32979634 32999700 32979771 32969839 33019890
33199979

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