MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0348

ACUS11 KWNS 310345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310344
ARZ000-OKZ000-310515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 69...

VALID 310344Z - 310515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 69
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST NEXT FEW
HOURS AS CORRIDOR OF GREATEST RISK MAKES SLOW E/SEWD PROGRESS. A
DOWNSTREAM WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...GREATEST SUPERCELL RISK SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED ACROSS
THE SW TO CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 69 INTO EARLY MORNING GIVEN THE
PREDOMINANT FEED OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL W/SWLYS SUPPORTING WAA ATOP
REMNANT OUTFLOW IN THE WAKE OF SAT MORNING CONVECTION. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF
AR...SUGGESTING HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH
ERN EXTENT INTO AR ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEARTH OF INSTABILITY NOTED
IN THE 00Z LZK RAOB. FARTHER WEST...FETCH OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /AS SAMPLED BY 00Z LMN RAOB/ AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. BUT WITH CONTINUED NOCTURNAL SURFACE COOLING
AND A RELATIVELY WEAK LLJ...OVERALL INTENSITY HAS LIKELY PEAKED AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME.

..GRAMS.. 03/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 33999533 34519634 34949625 36039500 36209354 35929284
35259301 34499405 33999533

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