DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141247
SWODY1
SPC AC 141244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS...NORTHEAST OK...AND SOUTHWEST MO...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST
KS INTO CENTRAL NEB. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND
EXTEND FROM NORTHERN OK INTO WESTERN IA BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH 50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED INTO IA AND 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION IN
PLACE THIS MORNING. THE CAP SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM IA INTO
NORTHERN OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE MOST ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...AND
SOUTHWEST MO WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. LARGE
HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD...WHILE AN
ACCOMPANYING SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS/AL
AND INTO FL. THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER TODAY. ROTATING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED TODAY OVER LAND.

..HART/GARNER.. 04/14/2013

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