DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251608
SWODY1
SPC AC 251606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT THU APR 25 2013

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL AREAS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AS A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATE THROUGH LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED IN MOST OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT...ON THE PERIPHERY OF A COLD SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...A STRONG WIND GUST OR
SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINAS COAST
SSW INTO NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL LIFT NE FROM SRN CA TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON EWD INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

...PARTS OF NE OK LATE TONIGHT...
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED /LESS THAN 750 J/KG MUCAPE/
OVERNIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER
06Z AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MOIST
ADVECTION ON INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW PW VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.0 INCH...AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED...MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 04/25/2013

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