DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221250
SWODY1
SPC AC 221248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT MON APR 22 2013

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...AN ELONGATED UPR TROUGH NOW
EXTENDING FROM SRN MB TO WA/ORE WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE NRN
GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS/NRN PLNS TODAY...AND REACH A CNTRL RCKYS/UPR MS
VLY AXIS BY 12Z TUE. AT LWR LVLS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE S ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLNS...WHILE
PROGRESSING MORE SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE UPR MS AND LWR MO VLYS.

...KS/OK/NE TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE
SRN PLNS...WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THAT SFC DEWPOINTS
COULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 50S F ACROSS WRN/NRN OK AND
FAR SRN KS BY THIS EVE. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND COOL MID-LVL
TEMPS...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD LATE DAY TSTMS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES S INTO REGION.
WIND PROFILES LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THESE COULD
YIELD SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND DESPITE RATHER MODEST MOISTURE
/PW APPROACHING 1 INCH/ AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE
CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL ESE-MOVING MCS TNGT GIVEN
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING/VEERING OF LLJ...AND CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SHOULD EXTEND SSW FROM NWRN OK INTO
W CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTN. SUBSTANTIAL EML CAP AND WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LARGELY PROHIBIT SUSTAINED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FEATURE. NEVERTHELESS...A LOW
PROBABILISTIC/CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR A SVR STORM OR TWO
GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE PRESENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT THERE.

...SRN TWO-THIRDS OF FL THIS AFTN...
WEAK SW-NE FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED OVER CNTRL FL WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A SURGE OF LOW-LVL NELY FLOW TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE SLOWLY EVOLVES
OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. WHILE THIS WILL TEND TO USHER IN SOMEWHAT
DRIER LOW-LVL AIR...WITH AFTN HEATING CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA LIKELY WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF COOL...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH WEAK LWR TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW PROMOTING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...SETUP MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT
IN SCTD-NUMEROUS DIURNAL TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
SFC WINDS.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 04/22/2013

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