DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281958
SWODY1
SPC AC 281956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2013

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A PART OF CNTRL GA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...

...SOUTHEAST...
ADDED A SMALL SLIGHT RISK TO A PART OF CNTRL GA WHERE A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. A POCKET OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING JUST S OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS LOCALLY BOOSTED INSTABILITY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY
ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS /PER ATLANTA VAD WIND PROFILE/...SETUP MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS INTO EARLY EVENING WITH PRIMARY
RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...MARGINAL THREATS FOR
HAIL/WIND CONTINUE.

...TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF A MATURE MCS THAT HAS JUST EXITED THE
DEEP S TX COAST WILL LIKELY CONFINE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL FARTHER
UPSTREAM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN MORE
PRONOUNCED. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND
MTNS IN COAHUILA MAY DEEPEN WITH MARGINAL THREATS FOR WIND/HAIL
DESPITE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF MODEST MID-LEVEL WLYS.

...CNTRL/UPPER OH VALLEY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE JUXTAPOSITION OF IND/OH/KY MAY DEVELOP
INTO TSTMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM THROUGH THE 60S...LIMITED BY ABUNDANT
STRATOCU AND DEEP CIRRUS CANOPY OVERSPREADING FROM THE TN
VALLEY/SOUTHEAST CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...SETUP NO LONGER APPEARS TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN ASOS METAR DATA ACROSS ERN
NEB/SERN SD/WRN IA/SRN MN HAVE CONSISTENTLY REMAINED 4-8 DEG F LOWER
THAN FORECAST BY CONSENSUS OF MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE. AVAILABLE
BUOYANCY HERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...BUT ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
WITH SOME SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

..GRAMS.. 04/28/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013/

RELATIVELY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THIS
MORNING. SEVERAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A LOW RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS TODAY...BUT NO ORGANIZED AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
TN/MS/AL/LA. SOME POCKETS OF SUNSHINE AND ASSOCIATED HEATING WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORMS OVER THIS REGION...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
FOCUSED EVENT IS LIKELY.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OH VALLEY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHERN OH INTO EASTERN KY. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN
THE MOST INTENSE CORES.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
A MATURE/DECAYING MCS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
BRO AREA. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL UNTIL THEY MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...STRONG HEATING WILL
OCCUR ALLOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CROSS THE BORDER INTO
TX THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. IF THIS OCCURS...HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...WEST TX...
SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE RISK OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS FROM CDS-MAF.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THIS REGION MAY RISE INTO THE MID 50S HELPING
TO WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS THAT FORM WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED...BUT A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.

...MN/IA/NEB...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT/ID DIGGING
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIX INTO THE LOWER 50S.
IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN NEB. THE
STRONGEST CORES COULD PRODUCE HAIL.

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