DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041558
SWODY1
SPC AC 041556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT THU APR 04 2013

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF FL AND FAR SE GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
ERN OK/TX UPR TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO LA THIS EVE BEFORE
REACHING THE FL PANHANDLE/N CNTRL GULF EARLY FRI. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT SHOULD FURTHER
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATER
TODAY/EARLY TNGT.

AT LWR LVLS...WEAK SFC LOW NOW NEAR PENSACOLA EXPECTED TO REFORM
ENEWD TO JUST OFF THE GA CST BY EVE...BEFORE DEEPENING AND
CONTINUING NEWD ALONG SC/NC CST EARLY FRI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW S GA
WEDGE FRONT TO SAG A LITTLE SWD INTO PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE LATER
TODAY. WHILE A SECONDARY SFC WAVE MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TNGT
OVER THE FAR NERN GULF AS THE MAIN UPR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
LWR MS VLY...CONVERGENCE WITH THE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
GIVEN EXPECTED DEEPENING OF LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA CST.

FARTHER S...WEAK W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS
IN CNTRL FL EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STNRY TODAY...REINFORCED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/RAIN WITH MCS NOW ENTERING THE WRN PART OF THE
PENINSULA. THIS BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLY THE E CST SEA BREEZE FRONT
TO ITS S...SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD.

...FL/FAR SE GA TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
SATELLITE AND SFC DATA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/NW FL INDICATE THAT
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OK/TX UPR TROUGH
ATTM EXTENDS FROM SSW FROM THE PENSACOLA SFC WAVE INTO THE CNTRL
GULF. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY ESE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NERN
GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN PRESENCE OF THE MOST RECENT
IN A SERIES OF LARGE MCSS THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE FRONT AND
OVERTURNED AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF...EXPECT THAT
THE MAIN AREA FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SIDE OF THE MCS AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS
GENERALLY ESE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE OF PENINSULA LATER
TODAY/TNGT...WITH OTHER STORMS LIKELY FORMING AHEAD OF IT.

ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY WILL BE
AMPLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ACROSS MUCH OF FL...ESPECIALLY
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI AS UPR TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
AND 700 MB WSW WINDS INCREASE TO AOA 40 KTS. COUPLED WITH 25-30 KT
SLY NEAR-SFC FLOW...SETUP COULD FOSTER LOW-LVL MESO
FORMATION/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN ANY SUSTAINED STORMS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN MOISTURE-RICH LOW-LVL
ENVIRONMENT /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ AND WEAK CIN/MODERATE SFC HEATING
EXPECTED THERE. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM S OF THE BOUNDARY IN
STRENGTHENING/CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW.

WHILE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT OVER NRN
AND N CNTRL FL AS THAT FARTHER S...WILL MAINTAIN LWR CONDITIONAL SVR
PROBABILITIES IN THAT REGION FOR BOTH /1/ POSSIBLE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG AND S OF WEDGE
FRONT...AND /2/ FOR POTENTIAL ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH LATE TNGT/EARLY FRI MOVING INLAND FROM THE NERN
GULF.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 04/04/2013

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