DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251958
SWODY1
SPC AC 251956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PARTS OF NRN AZ AND SERN UT...
DIABATIC HEATING AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -21 C AT 500
MB/ ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS AZ AT THIS TIME
HAVE RESULTED IN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH/EXIT REGION OF
MIDLEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES FROM HIGH BASED TSTMS. THUS...THE GENERAL TSTM HAS BEEN
EXPANDED WSWWD TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS.

...COASTAL SC...
A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG THE SC COAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SOON MOVE OFFSHORE...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
WARRANTED.

...PARTS OF NE OK LATE TONIGHT...
THE LATE PERIOD MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT REMAINS ON TRACK.

..PETERS.. 04/25/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT THU APR 25 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL AREAS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AS A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATE THROUGH LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED IN MOST OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT...ON THE PERIPHERY OF A COLD SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...A STRONG WIND GUST OR
SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINAS COAST
SSW INTO NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL LIFT NE FROM SRN CA TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON EWD INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

...PARTS OF NE OK LATE TONIGHT...
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED /LESS THAN 750 J/KG MUCAPE/
OVERNIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER
06Z AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MOIST
ADVECTION ON INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW PW VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.0 INCH...AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED...MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

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