DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050439
SWODY1
SPC AC 050436

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CDT THU APR 04 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH FL...

LONG LIVED MCS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SERN GULF BASIN AND WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FL BY SUNRISE OVERTURNING LINGERING INSTABILITY
THAT EXISTS SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD WANE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COLD FRONT
WILL NOT SURGE OFFSHORE UNTIL AFTER 06/00Z...ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT MAY LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG MAIN COLD
FRONT. GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION AND LIKELY STABILIZING
EFFECTS WITH EARLY MORNING MCS IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW ROBUST
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE. EVEN SO...FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND FOR THIS REASON
WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR POST-MCS ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT.


...NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...

LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NWRN U.S. TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL MT...SWD INTO NWRN CO BY
06/00Z. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTENING FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY APPEARS INADEQUATE TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

..DARROW/GARNER.. 04/05/2013

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