DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051239
SWODY1
SPC AC 051237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT FRI APR 05 2013

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO DE-AMPLIFICATION DURING THE D1
PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL BRANCH SHORT-WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A NUMBER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA
WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WITHIN THIS INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME...THE MOST NOTABLE OF
WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SERN U.S.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA.
FARTHER TO THE NW...A MIGRATORY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AN ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS
VALLEY.

...FL...

NOCTURNAL TSTMS OVER S FL HAVE GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
IS SETTLING SWD THROUGH THE FL STRAITS...DISPLACING A HIGHER THETA-E
BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE S OF THE REGION. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM
TAMPA...MIAMI...AND KEY WEST INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES...WHICH WHEN
COUPLED WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WILL LIMIT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. THUS...WHILE A FEW
STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND VEERED...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING...LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT
TO THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL FOSTER
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM W-E ACROSS
THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD/JIRAK.. 04/05/2013

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