DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041727
SWODY2
SPC AC 041726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT THU APR 04 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF SPLIT/CYCLONIC UPPER
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. PRIMARY TSTM/SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH FL IN GENERAL
ASSOCIATION WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. OTHER TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY...AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE/UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

...SOUTH FL/FL KEYS...
SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ONGOING/MOVING INLAND FRIDAY MORNING NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...AND/OR PERHAPS RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW. THE SPECIFIC DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POTENTIAL EARLY DAY NATURE OF THE THREAT AND
UNKNOWN DETAILS REGARDING CLOUD COVER/ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...A MOIST INFLUX OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AND SOME COOLING ALOFT /ATTENDANT TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG SBCAPE.

WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER DURING THE DAY...FORCING FOR
ASCENT/UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/COLD
FRONT AND THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT THE SUSTENANCE OF A SQUALL LINE/LINE
SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/VORTICES. ISOLATED
BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND/OR
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING PRIOR TO THAT.

...WY TO NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AN EASTWARD-MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY AID
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY AND RELATIVELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS /40+ KT/ COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS/DOWNDRAFTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION. THE OVERALL
SCENARIO APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...BUT THE REGION WILL BE
REEVALUATED DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF
LOW TSTM WIND PROBABILITIES.

..GUYER.. 04/04/2013

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