DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211639
SWODY2
SPC AC 211638

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2013

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN KS INTO NRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY FEATURE DIGGING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN LATE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS
CO/NEB/KS DURING THE DAY...AND INTO WRN TX AND OK OVERNIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TRANSPORT BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S INTO SRN KS...WHERE HEATING
AND FORCING NEAR THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

...SRN KS INTO NRN OK...
RAIN AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
NEB NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION WITH A SLY LOW
LEVEL JET. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEATING WILL OCCUR AND DUE TO COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN KS INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. AS
SUCH...CAPPING WILL BE COMPLETELY ERODED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IN THE HEATED AIR WILL BE MARGINAL.
INITIALLY HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM...THEN DEVELOP
ESEWD WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN LONG HODOGRAPHS AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SMALL...BOUNDED
BY THE SURGING COLD FRONT TO THE N AND INCREASING CAPPING ROUGHLY S
OF INTERSTATE 40. STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN THE FORM OF
A SMALL MCS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG.

..JEWELL.. 04/21/2013

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