DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241652
SWODY2
SPC AC 241650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS...

LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE SWRN
U.S. TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
FORECAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 26/12Z. MUCH COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE 4-CORNERS INTO NRN NM/SRN CO NORTH
OF THE JET AXIS WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DOWNSTREAM...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TX AND OK. A STUBBORN COASTAL
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INLAND DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN GENERATING SCT TSTMS
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ROOTED ABOVE WELL ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...FAVORABLE 850 MB TRAJECTORIES WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO ADVANCE INTO OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG A NW-SE
ORIENTED CORRIDOR SUGGEST MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG IF LIFTING
PARCELS NEAR 850 MB. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...NRN FL...

STRONG HEATING ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE
INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN FL. GIVEN THE WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED AND LIKELY STRUGGLE TO OBTAIN ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY
NECESSARY TO WARRANT LOW SEVERE PROBS.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES...

VERY STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES...APPROACHING 9 C/KM...ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEGLIGENT...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...A FEW MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2013

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