DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050527
SWODY2
SPC AC 050525

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT FRI APR 05 2013

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS ON D2 IN THE
WAKE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTING THE ATLANTIC COAST D1. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL TRACK EWD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DRAPED SWWD. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...INTERSECTING A DRYLINE IN
NWRN TX.

...CNTRL CONUS...
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING INTO THE SWRN GULF BASIN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHEAST...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CNTRL STATES. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD HOLD IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AS ONLY MODEST ONSHORE FLOW
COMMENCES ALONG THE TX GULF COAST.

ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GREAT LAKES...POTENTIALLY EXPANDING S/SWWD SAT NIGHT WITHIN A
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. FARTHER SW...INVOF THE DRYLINE/FRONT
INTERSECTION IN NWRN TX/SWRN OK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STRONGLY
CAPPED IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE 00Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH DEPICTING
CONVECTION EMANATING FROM HIGH-BASED PARCELS /ROOTED AROUND 550-600
MB/ THAT APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE LOWER-LEVELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY
MINIMIZE INHIBITION /DUE TO THE BMJ CONVECTIVE SCHEME/. A MORE
PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...A FEW
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP. COMBINATION OF
WEAK BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 04/05/2013

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