DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030606
SWODY2
SPC AC 030606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT WED APR 03 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL AND THE
PANHANDLE AS WELL AS SRN AL AND GA...

CORRECTED DISCUSSION

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH AXIS NEAR ALABAMA 12Z FRI. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GULF...AND MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS IT LOCATED OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NEWD ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WHICH WILL LIFT NWD OUT OF FL AND INTO SRN GA
DURING THE DAY. DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR MAINLY DUE TO MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS WELL AS COOLING ALOFT AS CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

...FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL...SRN AL AND GA...
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY
DRY SLOT WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. WHILE
THIS LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...IT SEEMS TO
ONLY BE A TIMING ISSUE AS ALL MODELS INDICATE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS N. CONVECTION MAY BEGIN OVER THE WATER AND SPREAD NWD. SHEAR
PROFILES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND/OR SEVERE BOWS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING AS WELL AS STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD COMPENSATE. WITH COOLING PROFILES
ALOFT...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL.
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND WIND COULD OCCUR IF THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES SUFFICIENTLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS THE SLOWEST...SUGGESTING COLD FRONT SEVERE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE FRIDAY/D3 PERIOD ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

..JEWELL.. 04/03/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.