DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010627
SWODY3
SPC AC 010626

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CDT MON APR 01 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
WILL APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM SRN TX NEWD INTO SRN LA IN THE
MORNING...AND WILL GENERALLY MOVE SWD ACROSS TX AND SWRN LA DURING
THE DAY. THE ERN LA/SRN MS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AS A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...RESULTING IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL.

...SRN TX...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS DEEP S TX...AND ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WEAK...HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
PROPAGATING CELL CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN ABOUT CAPPING...BUT THE DEEPENING COLD FRONT MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORMS. IF STORMS GET UNDERCUT BY THE
FRONT...ONLY HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS MORE
LIKELY IF STORMS CAN PROPAGATE ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY.

...SRN LA AND MS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN TX AND LA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...AND WILL SPREAD INTO MS AND AL OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND/OR WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NWRN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT WITH A PROMINENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
SIGNAL. AT RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE SRN
LA INTO SRN MS...WHERE UNSTABLE SURFACE BASED AIR MAY MAKE IT ON
SHORE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT CONDITIONAL LOW PROBS ARE WARRANTED.

..JEWELL.. 04/01/2013

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