ACUS03 KWNS 110700
SWODY3
SPC AC 110659
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM FL WWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS ERN U.S.
LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AND LIFT FROM
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND/SERN CANADA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...BOTH POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS REMAIN EVIDENT AND ACTIVE
IN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE FORMER DIVING SEWD FROM THE NE PAC
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND
THE LATTER LEADING A LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MEXICO TO
THE TX GULF COAST. INSTABILITY IN MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE TSTMS.
...FL...
SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BECOMING
STALLED ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA.
...W TX/SE NM...
PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TSTMS IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
...SE TX TO LA COAST...
THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND IS FORECAST TO INDUCE LIFT ACROSS THE STALLED RESIDUAL FRONT
NEAR THE GULF COAST. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A
SMALL MCS FROM THE TX COAST EAST ACROSS SRN LA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
...CNTRL PLAINS LATE...
THE NRN STREAM JET SPREADING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO/WY WITH WARM ADVECTION
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS AND POTENTIAL FOR STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD OFFSET
LIMITED MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER.
..CARBIN.. 04/11/2013
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