DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120716
SWODY3
SPC AC 120714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS NRN CO
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS FALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NWRN U.S. REASONABLE CONSISTENCY EXISTS AMONG
THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
AT 21Z WITH A POSITION FROM SRN MN...ARCING SWD ACROSS WRN IA THEN
SWWD ACROSS KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY MOIST...AT LEAST FOR MID APRIL...A
NARROW AXIS OF LOWER 50S SFC DEW POINTS MAY ADVECT JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SUCH THAT AFTERNOON HEATING WOULD YIELD 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA WITH UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE OVER NWRN
OK/SCNTRL KS...IF DEW POINTS CAN RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S. IT/S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER UPPER 50S WILL VERIFY BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FORCED BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZATION AND HAIL/WIND MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT IF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY DO INDEED RETURN AS A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST.


...GULF COAST/FL PENINSULA...

LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF BASIN INTO
GA/FL BY 15/12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND FOCUS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN TRANSLATE INTO GA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS ABLE TO ADVANCE
INLAND AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR ATTENDANT WIND/TORNADO THREATS...MAY BE NOTED.
AT THIS TIME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
DESTABILIZATION GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE ACROSS
THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WELL AHEAD OF THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH.
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF FL WITH STRONGER FORCED ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE/NRN PENINSULA. AS NOTED ABOVE...SEVERE PROBS ARE
PREDICATED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.

..DARROW.. 04/12/2013

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