DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050715
SWODY3
SPC AC 050714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT FRI APR 05 2013

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WEST WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUING E OF THE ROCKIES. A COUPLE OF
LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MAY EMANATE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY ADVANCING NWD AS A WARM
FRONT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL MIX ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX
ON SUN AFTERNOON...WITH LESS CONFIDENT PLACEMENT OF POSITION WITH
NRN EXTENT.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
A SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION MAY BE WARRANTED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
IN LATER OUTLOOKS...BUT BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH
WHERE/HOW CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BENEATH A STOUT
EML...YIELDING 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE BY SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH POSITION
OF THE DRYLINE...LIKELY OWING TO PRONOUNCED VARIATION WITH THE
HANDLING OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES IN THE LEE OF THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. THE POTENTIALLY MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
PROBABLY BE CENTERED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK INTO N TX IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE DRYLINE. HERE...ELONGATED WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A
RISK FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONVECTION
BE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP. THIS THREAT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN A
NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF STRONG MLCIN TO THE
E IN THE MOIST SECTOR. FARTHER N INTO KS...TSTM PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHER ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT BUT MORE MARGINAL
BUOYANCY IS ANTICIPATED.

..GRAMS.. 04/05/2013

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