DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010844
SWOD48
SPC AC 010843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT MON APR 01 2013

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...FLORIDA INTO FAR SRN GA- D4 INTO D5...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOVING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES EITHER THUR NIGHT OR ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FL.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE FRONT WILL PRECLUDE A
SEVERE AREA AT THIS TIME.

WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A SEVERE THREAT LATE THUR NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS
ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER...SUGGESTING THE MAIN THREAT EARLY FRIDAY. IN
EITHER CASE...MOISTENING WILL BE UNDERWAY ON THUR...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LAND. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR
MAY BE ALONG THE W COAST AS MATURE STORMS MOVE OFF THE WATER.
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES COULD OCCUR GIVEN
VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR AND MAY LIMIT TORNADO THREAT...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST AND WILL MAXIMIZE ECHO TOPS AND
WATER LOADING...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A FEW SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS...EITHER DUE TO OUTFLOW OR AUGMENTED BY MESOCYCLONES.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS - D8...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE WRN CONUS AFTER ABOUT D7 WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DRYLINE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM KS INTO
OK AND TX. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS NRN OK BY 00Z ON THE 9TH.

..JEWELL.. 04/01/2013

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