DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100826
SWOD48
SPC AC 100825

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE PROBABILITIES...LOW-END
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST
STATES ON D5-6 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ENCOUNTERING AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE
ECMWF/CMC ARE CONSISTENTLY FASTER/WEAKER THAN THE GFS...RESULTING IN
MORE SUBDUED INLAND PENETRATION OF A GULF AIR MASS AND MODEST
KINEMATIC FIELDS.

MORE PROMINENT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE REALIZED TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS WOULD SETUP RETURN FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS...S OF A RELATIVELY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON D1-2 IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS DETRIMENTAL TO DRYING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN AS THE MOST
RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAD...WHICH POTENTIALLY WILL YIELD A MORE
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH WITH IMMENSE SPREAD IN BOTH
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING...WHICH WILL CERTAINLY EFFECT DOWNSTREAM
CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL POSITIONS. AS SUCH...CONSIDERING ANY
HIGHLIGHT FOR A SPECIFIC AREA/DAY WITH 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IS PREMATURE ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 04/10/2013

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